Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

捷联式惯性导航系统误差处理技术的新进展

捷联式惯性导航系统误差处理的研究在近年来取得很大进展 ,相继出现了一些新思想、新算法、新技术。首先对捷联惯导系统误差模型的研究现状作了系统总结 ,然后对捷联式系统姿态算法和误差处理技术进行了归纳和分析 ,重点介绍了近期出现的几种新技术 ,最后提出了捷联惯导系统误差处理技术的研究方向。     

论高校科技期刊的审稿工作

高校科技期刊现行审稿方法主要是单盲审稿和双盲审稿 ,这种封闭式暗箱操作的方法必然受到一些人为因素的干扰 ,影响审稿的客观和公正 ,从而影响期刊的学术质量。对此 ,在审稿中应加大外审稿的比重 ,启用中青年学者审稿 ,公开审稿和网上审稿。     

Deterministic inventory lot‐size models under inflation with shortages and deterioration for fluctuating demand

In this paper, we extend the inventory lot‐size models to allow for inflation and fluctuating demand (which is more general than constant, increasing, decreasing, and log‐concave demand patterns). We prove that the optimal replenishment schedule not only exists but is also unique. Furthermore, we show that the total cost associated with the inventory system is a convex function of the number of replenishments. Hence, the search for the optimal number of replenishments is simplified to finding a local minimum. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the results. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 144–158, 2001     

新形势下高校良好群体关系的构建

随着高校人事制度、分配制度、管理体制的改革 ,高校不同群体间的差异将日趋明显。本文通过对高校不同群体特性的分析 ,提出了构建良好群体关系的必要性和基本途径     

营房实力综合数据分析技术

在营房系统中,营房实力主要包括个人基本情况及住房情况、家属住房情况两大类的知识。营房住房标准分为:按标准住房、超标准住房、未达标准住房、无住房。结合营房实力数据的基本特点,充分利用了先进的数据仓库技术,在数据挖掘和商业智能服务等方面作了深入的探讨,通过营房实力知识对数据进行归类统计,提出了基于知识的统计系统,建立了营房住用多维数据模型和个人住房情况多维数据模型,实现了对营房住用情况和个人住房情况等营房数据的多维分析。     

Computational analysis of MMAP[K]/PH[K]/1 queues with a mixed FCFS and LCFS service discipline

This paper studies a queueing system with a Markov arrival process with marked arrivals and PH‐distribution service times for each type of customer. Customers (regardless of their types) are served on a mixed first‐come‐first‐served (FCFS) and last‐come‐first‐served (LCFS) nonpreemptive basis. That is, when the queue length is N (a positive integer) or less, customers are served on an FCFS basis; otherwise, customers are served on an LCFS basis. The focus is on the stationary distribution of queue strings, busy periods, and waiting times of individual types of customers. A computational approach is developed for computing the stationary distribution of queue strings, the mean of busy period, and the means and variances of waiting times. The relationship between these performance measures and the threshold number N is analyzed in depth numerically. It is found that the variance of the virtual (actual) waiting time of an arbitrary customer can be reduced by increasing N. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 399–421, 2000     

Determining a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with rework jobs

Consider a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with only a work center handling both regular and rework jobs. An imperfect production system studied here, generates defect jobs by factors other than machine failures. A threshold control or (ω, s) policy sets the guideline for a work center to switch between regular and rework jobs. A production cycle begins with loading and processing of several batches of regular jobs with a lot size equal to s. The outcome of each completed regular job is an independent Bernoulli trial with three possibilities: good, rework, or scrap. Once the work center accumulates more than a threshold ω of rework jobs, it finishes the last batch of regular jobs and switches to rework jobs. The objective of this research is to find a threshold ω and a lot size s that maximize the average long‐term profit. The ultimate goal is to construct a simple algorithm to search for ω and s that can be implemented directly in production management systems, as a result of this work. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 273–301, 1999     

Minimizing weighted earliness and tardiness penalties in single‐machine scheduling with idle time permitted

In this paper, a single‐machine scheduling problem with weighted earliness and tardiness penalties is considered. Idle time between two adjacent jobs is permitted and due dates of jobs could be unequal. The dominance rules are utilized to develop a relationship matrix, which allows a branch‐and‐bound algorithm to eliminate a high percentage of infeasible solutions. After combining this matrix with a branching strategy, a procedure to solve the problem is proposed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 760–780, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10039